The future - a good place to be?

The previous post in my opinion proved via the Histomap that no nation prevails forever. What the map doesn’t tell us is why nations decline. There are tons of books written about the fall of Greece, Spain, England, Persia, Egypt, Rome, etc. No one can read them all, and some of those I have read have left me confused and with more questions than answers (I will also admit that some of the more scholarly books are beyond my understanding). When I began my search yesterday for the reasons nations fall, I was hoping to find a Histomap-type graph that graphically depicted the reasons for decline. If not that, I hoped to find several knowledgeable sources that had simple, brief bullet point lists. My plan was then to select those causes in common from the various sources and call it good. That didn’t work. Complexity rather than simplicity seems to be the rule on the subject of empires failing. And agreement on causes are rare. Each source I read seemed to have its own pet theory(s) to explain why nations fail. Another issue adding to complexity is that nations that failed up to and through the Middle Ages fell for reasons different than those nations failing after the Middle Ages. Barbian invasion followed by rape and pillage is not so common in modern times, though Ukraine, Syria and some other countries may disagree.

We are entering the age of artificial intelligence so I asked Window’s Copilot for an answer to my questions. It gave me six reasons for nations declining:

Economic troubles – high national debt, persistent budget deficits,

Political instability – political corruption, loss of public trust in institutions

Social issues – inequality, increased crime rates, declining public health

Military weakness - I don’t think the USA has gotten weak. The bad guys have gotten stronger. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran could be the axis powers of WW lll.

Environmental degradation – Not sure I agree with this

Cultural decline – loss of cultural identity, declining educational standards

Let me add two of my own indicators that a nation is in trouble.

Lack of collective objective reasoning – Many people believe they are thinking when all they are doing is rearranging prejudices.

Ignoring the Golden Rule – nuff said

There is an article in The Hill titled “Five reasons American decline appears irreversible.” It was written a year ago but in my opinion is relevant today. I think that it hits the nail on the head. The article says that the ‘five reasons’ are irreversible. Are they? Human history says that they are. To me it depends on if someday we humans can leave the caves behind behaviorally.  

The Paradox of Learning from History

In my previous post I wrote that in my opinion the first quarter of 2025 is going to be very interesting. I placed it in the context of Donald Trump’s actions, but my interest in/concern for the future transcends Trump, Harris, Biden, Republicans and Democrats. Russia’s president Putin said that there is a new world order in the making. He is right, though it isn’t a world order that is new and happening overnight. Men, countries, nations, empires, gods and institutions have been coming and going for many centuries. Nothing is static; change is ongoing. The Unites States we know now is not the country of 1725 nor will it be the country of 2325, by which time the entire world stage will be different.

In 1931 a man named John Sparks created what is now known as the Histomap which shows the rise and fall of global powers over a 4,000 year period. It is an incredible document in that it graphically depicts the beginning, the high-water mark and the decline of the most prominent world powers from 2,000 BC to 1,900 CE. 

I’ll give you the link in a minute but first let me explain a few things. The x axis on top lists the most prominent world powers. The y axis is the time in 50-year increments. The width of the nations at any given year indicates the country’s relative power.  Egypt for example, is the big kid on the block at the top of the chart in 2000 BC. By following it down you can see the gains and loss of its stature over time until it ceases to be a world power. In the lower left corner you will see the United States. In the grand scheme of things we were a Johnny-come-lately and a medium sized power. If the data continued to today we would be the big guy. But for how long?

Here is the link. Please do yourself a favor and look at the chart. You will see living, moving history, and the certainty that change is inevitable. We can learn from history but thus far we haven’t been able to use that knowledge to alter our future. That is the paradox.   

Of Winners and Losers

For anyone interested in November’s presidential election, broadcast news is still hammering on the election and its aftermath. A barrage of issues old and new are presented every day. For me there are only two issues that I am interested in. One is Trumps nominees, the other is if he will really carry out all the threats that he has made…that he will take action on them on “day one”. I think that his actions will be less severe than his election bluster. For example, he has recently said that he may not pardon all of the capital rioters, and that he may keep us in NATO if the other countries live up to their commitments. Personally, I agree with his stance on NATO, but strongly disagree on pardoning any of the capital rioters.

I am also hearing and reading comments regarding Biden’s “abdication”, and Harris’s disappearance since losing the election. I think that Biden standing down is just dealing with reality. Some years ago a superior that I reported to announced his retirement. Almost overnight he became a non-entity. He was still shown respect, but he was no longer treated as a team leader, or even as a team member. I discussed the situation with him and remember him saying that, “…once you announce, you’re gone.” That’s where Biden is now, in the land of limbo. So is Harris. I feel sorry for her though I’m sure that she doesn’t need my sympathy. She ran a good campaign. Yes, she lost but if she is a loser than so are the 74.4 million of us who voted for her. That number represents 48.3 % of the total vote. Trump finished with 49.9 % or 76.9 million votes. Voter turn out was 63.7 % who cast 151.3 million votes. I find it interesting that in a year when there was so much hype and so much at stake, that out of 244.7 million voter eligible persons, 89.3 million didn’t vote. That raises another thought for me. I have heard a few Republicans say that the American people have given Trump a ‘mandate’. In election speak, mandate is usually interpreted to mean a significant majority. I don’t think it can reasonably be said that Trump received a significant majority. And, if the number of Harris voters and non-voters is added together, the total is 163.7 million who didn’t vote for Trump…more than double the number of votes he did receive. Anyway you slice it he did not receive a mandate from the American people.

Anyway, those numbers don’t mean anything now. For better or worse its over and done. I for one will be watching future events with a degree of apprehension. Whatever Trump does or doesn’t do, it is going to be one hell of an interesting first quarter in 2025. 

An Afternoon Walk in the Past

It has been said of me that I should have been an historian or archeologist, because my thoughts and focus are so often in the past. I usually reply that the future has not yet happened, and that the present becomes the past almost instantly, so for practical purposes the past is all that there is. But I know what they mean and can't argue the point. I definitely do have an affinity for the past. An example is a walk in the neighborhood yesterday afternoon.

Fairview is a large, modest piece of country dotted with modest homes owned by working class people. You won't find any mansions here, and are more likely to see houses that are in need of attention. The area was once known as the Peach Orchard. Some still refer to it as that. I don't know why. Anyway, while we're walking I try to imagine what the land looked like when the Cherrokee were the sole residents. I know that it is completely different, but the geography; the hills and ravines are the same as they were in the early 1800s so I have to content myself with that. 

It was sometime around 1838 that President Andrew Jackson ordered the forced removal of the entire Cherrokee nation to a reservation in Oklahoma. That opened the gates for the settlers to come pouring in. To my knowledge one of the first was Xanders McFarland, who quickly became one of the largest landowners in the area, including the land my house is on. I've been trying off and on to trace the owners of my property from McFarland to me with no success. 

Our walk took us past a car graveyard. For some unknown reason this Chevy Sport Blazer has always intrigued me. 

I can't look at it without seeing it sitting in the Morristown, Tennessee dealer showroom in 1987, with mom and dad and maybe a couple of kids looking at it. Dad is trying his best to look nonchalant in front of his family and the salesman, but inside he wants to drive this vehicle so badly that he is starting to sweat. Later, after the papers are signed I can see the Blazer tooling down the street; a smug look on dad’s face and the kids peering out the back side windows. Who knows where that car has been, who has driven it, how many owners it has had, what adventures it experienced, and how it came to be in this graveyard in Fairview, Georgia? The answer to the last part of this question seems evident - the front end on the driver side is completely demolished. Wherever it happened, it was a violent ending. There are other cars in the graveyard, some so deeply buried in jungle-like brush and undergrowth that it is impossible to get to them. And each has a story to tell.

Not too far away is what remains of what appeared to be a fine house. All that remains now is the front facade. The roof and all the walls are laying crumpled on the ground. The brickwork leading to the house talks to me. I can see quests ascending the concrete steps and following a path that today leads to nowhere. There is no way of knowing when this house was built. My guess would be anywhere from the early to mid-1900s.

There are more reminders of the past; more pictures to be taken. The final photo yesterday was of the return to our house. The sun was setting, the temperature was mild, and as usual the only sounds were from birds. Fortunately history doesn’t stop with our return home. At approximately 3:00 PM on September 20, 1863 a federal army defeated at the Battle of Chickamauga was hastily retreating through the McFarland Gap on its way to Rossville and then to Chattanooga. Our home is about 500 yards from the gap, and no doubt many Union soldiers traveled over our land to reach the gap. There to see them hurry by was a 161-year-old water oak (towering over the garage). The tree is now estimated to be 240 years old, which takes us back to 1784. Perhaps a Cherokee brave out hunting watched a squirrel bury the acorn that would become the massive tree that exists on our land today.    

When I am sitting in a chair 20 feet from that oak, watching burgers cooking on the wood grill, I think about that Chevy Blazer, the remains of the old house, the retreating soldiers, and what the land must have looked like to that oak as a young sapling. If time travel was a real thing....

Somewhat Disappointing

 In a couple of days Phase 1 of the election process will be over. Phase 1 is the part where potential voters are bombarded with politics. It is inescapable. Between the time when I am starting this post and then finishing it I will probably receive 5 - 6 or more emails telling me how angelic one candidate is and how demonic the other is. Television programs and the internet present themselves as news programs but they really are biased electioneering. I particularly enjoy the trite phrases, including the one that says how the other candidate is a serious threat to our country and democracy. 

Various polls have been showing for some time that the election is virtually even at this point. Which I find interesting. The latest stats that I have found say that there are 186.5 million voters registered in this country. If the polls prove to be true, that means that each candidate will receive 93.25 million votes. Think about that. Each side fervently believes that they are right and the other side is crazy (crazy is a word that's been tossed around a lot in this election). How is it possible that 93.25 million people see the truth, while the other 93.25 million are crazy? It would probably take a conference of 100 socialists and psychologists 10 years to answer that question. And 93.25 million people would not accept the group's conclusion. 

Anyway, next Wednesday Phase 2 of the process will begin. That will involve hundreds of accusations about voting fraud being tossed about. Investigations will be held; suits will be filed, and best of all endless conspiracy theorists will entertain us into the unforeseeable future. Some will even claim to have proof. I'll be 84 next month, and I am mildly hopeful that we will settle on who was elected president sometime before my 85th birthday. 

I voted early last week. When I handed in my ballet I was given a sticker that says, "I'm a Georgia Voter - I secured my vote." I wonder what that means? How did I secure my vote? If Trump looses he won't believe my vote was "secured". And I do hope that he looses. Now, living here in the south smack in the middle of a cultural far-right mindset, voting against Trump makes me one of the "crazies." I don't go around publicizing that I'm anti-Trump, and I don't bring up the subject in conversation, but I also will not back down if the topic does arise.  

When I left the voting both last week  I had a sort of helpless feeling. I would like to be able to do more to defeat Trump, but there isn't anything else. I did have one thought though that kind of perked me up. I thought of the most obnoxious MAGA guy that I know, and imagined telling him that I had just neutralized his vote - made his vote meaningless. That probably should not be a source of pleasure for me but that's the way it is these days, and that is somewhat disappointing.

The Last WOW!

 Yesterday Maribel and I and some friends ate lunch at the Local Goat restaurant in the city of Ooltewah, TN. It is a fairly new restaurant in a rapid growth area. The exterior appearance is tastefully modern as is the interior. The food and drink menus had a good selection. The ambience was so-so, the service and food quality was good. What was most pleasing, most enjoyable was the lengthy discussion with our friends. That is almost always the case. It doesn't matter where we are, it is being with our friends and the conversation that leaves us with that good feeling and memories afterward. 

This morning Maribel and I were critiquing the Local Goat restaurant and concluded, as we usually do, that it was okay but no wow. That led to us to trying to recall the last time we were wowed by a restaurant. Neither of us had an answer. We decided that if you've seen one restaurant, you've seen them all. What got interesting is that we began applying that same 'seen one seen them all' concept beyond restaurants. Yesterday afternoon we went to a Labor Day fair. Same thing...if you've seen one town fair you've seen them all. And our list kept growing to include: antebellum mansions, Civil War battlefields, antique shops, mountains, rivers, clothing shops, grocery stores, gift shops, and as much as we enjoy visiting and walking the main street of small towns, there isn't much difference between them. We know pretty much what we're going to see before we get there.

We then asked each other, when was the last time you experienced a wow feeling from any source? Maribel had to go all the way back to December, 2013 when she achieved her goal of many years...seeing Machu Picchu, with her son Brian and me. There is no doubt that Machu Picchu is a magical place. Even though we had crappy weather on the day of our visit, taking photos with the iconic background was a thrill for all of us.

My last wow moment occurred in Nashville in September, 2018. Some friends were showing us the sights. At one stop after getting out of the car, there in front of me was a full scale replica of the Greek Parthenon. Given my life-long penchant for history, that by itself was enough to get me excited. 

What I saw when I stepped inside was a powerful WOW! experience. There stood a 42' statue of Athena, gilded in shining gold. The statue in her hand is 6' tall. I walked around and around that statue, snapping I don't know how many photos. I was spellbound. The size, the detail and sheer beauty were awesome. Had I been by myself I probably would have spent the rest of the day gawking at my surroundings.

Seeing Athena happened 6 years ago yesterday. Machu Picchu was 13 years ago. That's a long time since our last wows. I do hope that they won't be the last ones. Maribel has been suggesting for some time that we visit Europe. It could be that in Italy, France or Germany there are several WOWs! waiting for us. I hope so.

 

A Riddle Without an Answer

 Last night Bloomberg's Opinion editor Tim O'Brien wrote on X...

"Trump’s taken control of the momentum of this debate — despite lying and living in an alternate reality — and Biden simply comes across as a somewhat dazed punching bag," 

That pretty much sums up the situation.

What does a thinking, reasoning voter do in November? The choice is between a lying, delusional megalomaniac, and a man who is not competent to hold any decision making position be it in politics or the private sector. 

Last night was Biden's swan song. There is zero chance of his recovery. Among the democrats there is talk of finding a replacement candidate. Who might that be? No reasonable individual is going to offer themselves up as cannon fodder. Though I see no possibility that they could work, there are only two options that the democrats could try. One would be to run with Taylor Swift...if she would accept the role of candidate. Her name is a household word, and her cult followers are probably just as fanatic and numerous as the MAGA cult. She couldn't be more incompetent than Biden, nor as divisive/destructive as Trump.

The other option would be to counter Trump's spewing of verbal diarrhea last night point by point with facts, a process that has already been started. Proof of his lies may move the undecided voters away from him, and who knows...may even penetrate the mind fog of some Trumpers. But to what end? Not voting for Trump leads us back to Biden. The choices are heart attack or cancer. I don't see an answer to this riddle. 

As for me, comes November I'll either be siting this one out, or voting for Biden with the hope that should he win he won't be in office long and that kamala Harris won't be as bad as I have imagined.