Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The Paradox of Learning from History

In my previous post I wrote that in my opinion the first quarter of 2025 is going to be very interesting. I placed it in the context of Donald Trump’s actions, but my interest in/concern for the future transcends Trump, Harris, Biden, Republicans and Democrats. Russia’s president Putin said that there is a new world order in the making. He is right, though it isn’t a world order that is new and happening overnight. Men, countries, nations, empires, gods and institutions have been coming and going for many centuries. Nothing is static; change is ongoing. The Unites States we know now is not the country of 1725 nor will it be the country of 2325, by which time the entire world stage will be different.

In 1931 a man named John Sparks created what is now known as the Histomap which shows the rise and fall of global powers over a 4,000 year period. It is an incredible document in that it graphically depicts the beginning, the high-water mark and the decline of the most prominent world powers from 2,000 BC to 1,900 CE. 

I’ll give you the link in a minute but first let me explain a few things. The x axis on top lists the most prominent world powers. The y axis is the time in 50-year increments. The width of the nations at any given year indicates the country’s relative power.  Egypt for example, is the big kid on the block at the top of the chart in 2000 BC. By following it down you can see the gains and loss of its stature over time until it ceases to be a world power. In the lower left corner you will see the United States. In the grand scheme of things we were a Johnny-come-lately and a medium sized power. If the data continued to today we would be the big guy. But for how long?

Here is the link. Please do yourself a favor and look at the chart. You will see living, moving history, and the certainty that change is inevitable. We can learn from history but thus far we haven’t been able to use that knowledge to alter our future. That is the paradox.   


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