The future - a good place to be?

The previous post in my opinion proved via the Histomap that no nation prevails forever. What the map doesn’t tell us is why nations decline. There are tons of books written about the fall of Greece, Spain, England, Persia, Egypt, Rome, etc. No one can read them all, and some of those I have read have left me confused and with more questions than answers (I will also admit that some of the more scholarly books are beyond my understanding). When I began my search yesterday for the reasons nations fall, I was hoping to find a Histomap-type graph that graphically depicted the reasons for decline. If not that, I hoped to find several knowledgeable sources that had simple, brief bullet point lists. My plan was then to select those causes in common from the various sources and call it good. That didn’t work. Complexity rather than simplicity seems to be the rule on the subject of empires failing. And agreement on causes are rare. Each source I read seemed to have its own pet theory(s) to explain why nations fail. Another issue adding to complexity is that nations that failed up to and through the Middle Ages fell for reasons different than those nations failing after the Middle Ages. Barbian invasion followed by rape and pillage is not so common in modern times, though Ukraine, Syria and some other countries may disagree.

We are entering the age of artificial intelligence so I asked Window’s Copilot for an answer to my questions. It gave me six reasons for nations declining:

Economic troubles – high national debt, persistent budget deficits,

Political instability – political corruption, loss of public trust in institutions

Social issues – inequality, increased crime rates, declining public health

Military weakness - I don’t think the USA has gotten weak. The bad guys have gotten stronger. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran could be the axis powers of WW lll.

Environmental degradation – Not sure I agree with this

Cultural decline – loss of cultural identity, declining educational standards

Let me add two of my own indicators that a nation is in trouble.

Lack of collective objective reasoning – Many people believe they are thinking when all they are doing is rearranging prejudices.

Ignoring the Golden Rule – nuff said

There is an article in The Hill titled “Five reasons American decline appears irreversible.” It was written a year ago but in my opinion is relevant today. I think that it hits the nail on the head. The article says that the ‘five reasons’ are irreversible. Are they? Human history says that they are. To me it depends on if someday we humans can leave the caves behind behaviorally.  

The Paradox of Learning from History

In my previous post I wrote that in my opinion the first quarter of 2025 is going to be very interesting. I placed it in the context of Donald Trump’s actions, but my interest in/concern for the future transcends Trump, Harris, Biden, Republicans and Democrats. Russia’s president Putin said that there is a new world order in the making. He is right, though it isn’t a world order that is new and happening overnight. Men, countries, nations, empires, gods and institutions have been coming and going for many centuries. Nothing is static; change is ongoing. The Unites States we know now is not the country of 1725 nor will it be the country of 2325, by which time the entire world stage will be different.

In 1931 a man named John Sparks created what is now known as the Histomap which shows the rise and fall of global powers over a 4,000 year period. It is an incredible document in that it graphically depicts the beginning, the high-water mark and the decline of the most prominent world powers from 2,000 BC to 1,900 CE. 

I’ll give you the link in a minute but first let me explain a few things. The x axis on top lists the most prominent world powers. The y axis is the time in 50-year increments. The width of the nations at any given year indicates the country’s relative power.  Egypt for example, is the big kid on the block at the top of the chart in 2000 BC. By following it down you can see the gains and loss of its stature over time until it ceases to be a world power. In the lower left corner you will see the United States. In the grand scheme of things we were a Johnny-come-lately and a medium sized power. If the data continued to today we would be the big guy. But for how long?

Here is the link. Please do yourself a favor and look at the chart. You will see living, moving history, and the certainty that change is inevitable. We can learn from history but thus far we haven’t been able to use that knowledge to alter our future. That is the paradox.   

Of Winners and Losers

For anyone interested in November’s presidential election, broadcast news is still hammering on the election and its aftermath. A barrage of issues old and new are presented every day. For me there are only two issues that I am interested in. One is Trumps nominees, the other is if he will really carry out all the threats that he has made…that he will take action on them on “day one”. I think that his actions will be less severe than his election bluster. For example, he has recently said that he may not pardon all of the capital rioters, and that he may keep us in NATO if the other countries live up to their commitments. Personally, I agree with his stance on NATO, but strongly disagree on pardoning any of the capital rioters.

I am also hearing and reading comments regarding Biden’s “abdication”, and Harris’s disappearance since losing the election. I think that Biden standing down is just dealing with reality. Some years ago a superior that I reported to announced his retirement. Almost overnight he became a non-entity. He was still shown respect, but he was no longer treated as a team leader, or even as a team member. I discussed the situation with him and remember him saying that, “…once you announce, you’re gone.” That’s where Biden is now, in the land of limbo. So is Harris. I feel sorry for her though I’m sure that she doesn’t need my sympathy. She ran a good campaign. Yes, she lost but if she is a loser than so are the 74.4 million of us who voted for her. That number represents 48.3 % of the total vote. Trump finished with 49.9 % or 76.9 million votes. Voter turn out was 63.7 % who cast 151.3 million votes. I find it interesting that in a year when there was so much hype and so much at stake, that out of 244.7 million voter eligible persons, 89.3 million didn’t vote. That raises another thought for me. I have heard a few Republicans say that the American people have given Trump a ‘mandate’. In election speak, mandate is usually interpreted to mean a significant majority. I don’t think it can reasonably be said that Trump received a significant majority. And, if the number of Harris voters and non-voters is added together, the total is 163.7 million who didn’t vote for Trump…more than double the number of votes he did receive. Anyway you slice it he did not receive a mandate from the American people.

Anyway, those numbers don’t mean anything now. For better or worse its over and done. I for one will be watching future events with a degree of apprehension. Whatever Trump does or doesn’t do, it is going to be one hell of an interesting first quarter in 2025.